On Thursday, Swedish mobile telecommunications hardware maker Ericsson released its latest Mobility Report, with a (not)-surprisingly bullish outlook on worldwide 5G adoption rates. Ericsson says 5G is on track to become the fastest adopted mobile generation in history, with global subscriptions increasing at a rate of one million new subs per day. Subscriptions with 5G-enabled devices grew by 70 million in the first three months of 2021, expected to reach 580 million by year-end, driven by robust uptake in China, the U.S., Korea, Japan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The company expects 5G to penetrate every region in the world by 2026.
Ericsson’s forecast puts 5G at the billion-subscription mark fully two years ahead of the last generation standard (4G LTE) timeline for the same milestone. The Swedish telecom attributed this development to several factors, including China’s earlier commitment to 5G and the earlier availability and increasing affordability of commercial 5G devices, with more than 300 5G smartphone models already launched (or soon-to-launch) commercially.
Northeast Asia is expected to account for the largest share of 5G subscriptions by 2026, with an estimated 1.4 billion 5G subscriptions. While North American and GCC markets are expected to account for the highest 5G subscription penetration, with 5G mobile subscriptions comprising 84 percent and 73 percent of all regional mobile subscriptions respectively.
Next phase is here already
In a statement on the release of the publication (Ericsson’s 20th such annual state-of-the-industry report), Executive Vice President and Head of Networks Fredrik Jejdling said the company’s findings confirmed that the world has already entered the “next phase” of 5G, with accelerating roll-outs and expanded coverage in leading markets such as China, the U.S. and South Korea.
“Now is the time for advanced use cases to start materializing and deliver on the promise of 5G. Businesses and societies are also preparing for a post-pandemic world, with 5G-powered digitalization playing a critical role,” Jejdling said.
Ericsson expects Internet-of-Things (IoT) technology connections to increase by almost 80 percent this year alone, reaching almost 330 million connections by year end. By 2026, the “Massive IoT” technologies capable of supporting billions of devices–Narrowband Internet-of-Things and Category M (Cat-M)–alone are projected to account for 46 percent of all cellular IoT connections. Today’s most common applications of “Massive IoT” technologies are smart meters, sensors and asset tracking devices. Ericsson says these sorts of applications are expected to expand into “Critical IoT,” or time-critical communications for use cases requiring guaranteed data delivery with specific latency targets, such as cloud-based AR/VR, remote control of machines and vehicles, cloud robotics, and more. The company expects the first commercial devices in this next-generation IoT subsector to deploy in 2022.
Gulf states on track to overtake
While China, the U.S., and Asia-Pacific continue to show steady adoption of 5G devices, Ericsson is seeing robust growth in the telecom ecosystem in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, thanks to government-sponsored digital initiatives that are accelerating technological innovation along with 5G uptake. Already, over 90 percent of mobile subscriptions in the region were for broadband contracts, on track to reach 95 percent by 2026 (mostly in the 4G standard). But Ericsson expects 5G subscriptions to outstrip 4G in the Gulf region by 2026, by which time the region will be home to 62 million 5G subscriptions, making it the second highest 5G market penetration globally.
To date, Ericsson has formalized 139 commercial 5G agreements worldwide, 81 publicly announced 5G contracts, and launched 86 live 5G networks.
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